The IPCC Special Report 2018: What you need to know

Hello all, and welcome to my first blog post!

In case you haven't watched or read the news in the past week and a half, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) released a report stating that humanity has twelve years left to minimise the consequences of anthropogenic (human inflicted) climate change. The main priority for governments around the world is essentially to create and successfully deliver pledges that will reduce greenhouse gas-induced warming to a target that's 1.5C target; we are currently on course for a warming of 4C by the end of the century.

The report has undoubtedly made waves. So much so that US President Donald Trump, a known climate change sceptic, has backtracked slightly on his previous comments. Upon hearing this news, climate scientists and environmentalists may have waited with bated breath, only for their hopes to swiftly be dampened by his reiteration of political agendas apparently fuelling the argument for its severity. Inaction on the part of the US and leaders of other developed countries has led to unlikely intervention from the free market.

With the lack of political leadership regarding this issue, private companies and banks have taken the stage; HSBC has pledged to invest in renewable energy, and the Bank of England is urging insurers and banks to begin preparing for the financial implications of climate change. Billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates has started a climate change adaptation fund in order to help the most vulnerable adapt to the changes. It seems as though we've reached the point where private bodies are performing more acts of philanthropy than the world's governments, which exist to provide welfare for its citizens. The state of world politics is definitely heading in an interesting direction.

A little lost? Here's a quick breakdown:

What is the IPCC?

It's an intergovernmental panel within the UN, dedicated to researching climate change and assessing the extent of its effects. It was established in 1988 to help spread awareness, providing the public with a clear explanation of what is happening to the environment and potential resultant socio-political impacts. Thousands of scientists around the world contribute to the IPCC, with around 195 countries being members. It won a joint Noble Peace Prize in 2007 with Al Gore for their extensive efforts in gaining and spreading knowledge of anthropogenic climate change. Though the IPCC does special reports (this one being the most recent), it is currently working on its 6th Assessment Report, estimated to be completed in 2022. The most recent was in 2014.

Sea levels are projected to rise significantly (at least 65 cm) by 2100 (UNFCCC 2018) Photo: National Geographic

It's only 1.5C. Why is that such a big deal?

According to the Met Office, global temperatures have already risen 1C past pre-industrial levels, exceeding 1.5C by 2022 if no action is taken. What appears to be a minor average increase has seen some of the fastest decline in Arctic ice sheets and fastest rise in sea levels. This would lead to more frequent and severe 'El Niño' and 'La Niña' events, causing more disruption to global weather patterns, ecosystems, health and economies along with several other factors. An increase of 1.5C pushes the already extreme cases even further, creating a more volatile and unstable environment. In the 2016 Paris Agreement, all contributing countries concluded that global warming should be kept below 2C by 2100. The possibility of surpassing this within four years puts us on track to potentially see a rise of more than 4C in global average temperature in 2100.

Why 1.5C? Half a degree of warming creates a significant difference:

Comparison of a 1.5C increase and a 2C increase in global average temperature. Image from CarbonBrief

What will a 4C world look like?

I found a video from Wired which shows how a 4C increase will change every day life. It's interesting and worrying to see how dramatic these changes are, especially knowing the full extent of these changes haven't been fully realised. It's presented in a way that's much more relatable than most climate change related videos, so feel free to watch!

But wait, what is climate change, you may ask? Isn't that the same as global warming? Anthro-what? El Nino?? Don't worry, the BBC has created a guide to anyone having trouble wrapping their head around climate change, and the Met Office has made a helpful summary of El Niño.

Do you think we will be able to adapt in time?